VBAC Success Rates: What the Data Actually Says (And What It Means for You)
VBAC Success Rates: What the Data Actually Says (And What It Means for You)
This content is for educational purposes only and is not medical advice. Always consult your licensed healthcare provider regarding your individual health history and circumstances.
If you’ve had a C-section and you’re wondering whether a VBAC is even realistic for you, you’re not alone.
After my first birth — a long induction, multiple interventions, and eventually a C-section — I left feeling shaken. There was trauma there. Not just physically, but emotionally. I didn’t even know if wanting a different experience next time was “allowed.”
But I went on to have a successful unmedicated VBAC with my second baby.
So let’s talk about the actual numbers — not fear-based guesses, hospital hallway statistics, or “my friend said.” Just real data, in plain language.
What Is the Overall VBAC Success Rate?
According to the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG), the overall success rate for a planned Trial of Labor After Cesarean (TOLAC) is 60–80% (ACOG, 2019).
That means that out of 100 women who attempt a VBAC, about 60 to 80 will have a vaginal birth. I remember hearing this high rate and being shocked - I thought that it was way lower.
That is not a fringe statistic. That is a majority - which is amazing news.
The National Institutes of Health (NIH) consensus review found similar rates, reporting about 74% success overall (Guise et al., 2010).
So to ease your mind: VBACs are common, they are not rare and they are not statistically unlikely.
Planned VBAC vs. Overall VBAC Rates
Here’s where nuance matters.
The 60–80% number refers to women who plan a VBAC and go into labor attempting one.
It does not include women who automatically schedule repeat C-sections without labor.
So when someone says, “Most second births after a C-section are repeat C-sections,” that doesn’t mean VBACs fail often. It often means they weren’t attempted.
When a woman is a good candidate and plans a TOLAC, success rates remain high — especially when certain factors are present (we’ll get to those).
What Increases VBAC Success Rates?
Research consistently shows higher success rates when:
• The reason for the first C-section is unlikely to repeat (like breech positioning)
• You’ve had a prior vaginal birth (before or after the C-section)
• You go into spontaneous labor
• You have supportive care and low intervention labor management
Women who’ve already had one successful VBAC have success rates as high as 85–90% in subsequent attempts (ACOG, 2019).
Spontaneous Labor vs. Induction: Does It Matter?
VBAC success rates are generally higher when labor begins spontaneously.
A large systematic review found that spontaneous labor is associated with higher VBAC success compared to induced labor (Guise et al., 2010).
In my experience, waiting for labor to start spontaneously and not having interventions take place significantly helped me in having a successful, unmedicated VBAC.
With that being said however, induction doesn’t automatically mean failure — many women are induced and still have successful VBACs — but statistically, induction slightly lowers success rates and slightly increases risk of uterine rupture compared to spontaneous labor.
That’s not meant to scare you. It’s only meant to inform you.
If you want deeper context on induction experiences and how certain methods feel and function, you can read more about my experiences with those here:
→ The Truth About Cytotec for Labor Induction
→ Foley Bulb for Labor: Pros, Cons, and What It Felt Like
→ The Difference I Noticed Between Natural and Induced Contractions
What Is the Risk of Uterine Rupture?
This is usually the biggest fear-based argument against VBAC.
The risk of uterine rupture in a planned TOLAC with one prior low transverse C-section is approximately 0.5–0.9% (ACOG, 2019).
That’s less than 1%.
To put that into perspective:
That means 99+ out of 100 women do not experience rupture.
And importantly — repeat C-sections carry their own cumulative risks, including placenta accreta, surgical complications, and future pregnancy risks (Silver et al., 2006).
The conversation shouldn’t be “Is VBAC risk-free?”
It should be “What are the risks of both options?”
Why VBAC Success Rates Can Feel Lower Than They Are
Sometimes success rates feel smaller because:
• Hospitals have restrictive VBAC policies
• Providers are risk-averse
• Inductions are scheduled early
• Labor is managed with low tolerance for time
• Continuous interventions increase likelihood of repeat surgery
When labor is allowed to unfold physiologically — especially in spontaneous labor — VBAC success increases.
If you want more on how I approached labor differently the second time, you can read about that here:
→ What I Did During Labor to Avoid a Repeat C-Section
→ How I Prepped My Mind and Body for a Natural Birth
Preparation, support and environment matter more than we realize.
Who Is Considered a “Good Candidate” for VBAC?
ACOG considers most women with one prior low transverse C-section incision to be candidates for TOLAC (ACOG, 2019).
Factors that may lower success probability (but do not automatically rule it out) include:
• Multiple prior C-sections
• Classical (vertical) uterine incision
• Certain medical complications
• Very high BMI
• Need for induction
But even then — individualized counseling matters.
You are not a statistic. But statistics can help guide decisions.
A Word on Trauma and VBAC
Sometimes the deeper question behind “What are the success rates?” is:
“Can I trust my body again?”
After my first birth — induction, interventions, epidural, eventual C-section — I really felt this and a sense of defeat. It took me a time, educating myself, processing and getting the right support ready when I was pregnant with my second baby before I started to trust my body again.
The data and lots of education gave me reassurance.
But healing gave me confidence.
VBAC isn’t just about avoiding surgery. For some women, it’s more about doing things differently, feeling informed, making sure their next birth isn’t ‘hijacked’, etc.
If birth trauma is part of your story, you may also find it helpful to read:
→ You’re Allowed to Have a Vaginal Birth After a C-Section. Here’s the Truth
You are allowed to process, plan differently and ask any and every question you have.
So… Are VBACs Successful?
Yes.
Most planned VBACs succeed.
Most women who attempt TOLAC have vaginal births.
Spontaneous labor increases those odds.
Supportive, patient-centered care increases those odds.
Balanced counseling improves outcomes.
The data is not anti-VBAC. It’s actually quite reassuring.
If You’re Preparing for a VBAC
Education changes outcomes.
If you’re preparing for birth after a C-section, planning an unmedicated birth, navigating intervention decisions, or healing from a difficult experience, I’m currently finalizing two comprehensive, trauma-aware birth series designed to support you from pregnancy through postpartum.
If you’d like to be the first to know when they’re released, More details will be shared here soon.
You deserve clear information instead of fear or pressure.
References
American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists. (2019). Vaginal birth after cesarean delivery: ACOG Practice Bulletin No. 205. Obstetrics & Gynecology, 133(2), e110–e127.
Guise, J. M., Eden, K., Emeis, C., Denman, M., Marshall, N., Fu, R., … McDonagh, M. (2010). Vaginal birth after cesarean: New insights. Evidence Report/Technology Assessment No. 191. Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality.
Silver, R. M., Landon, M. B., Rouse, D. J., et al. (2006). Maternal morbidity associated with multiple repeat cesarean deliveries. Obstetrics & Gynecology, 107(6), 1226–1232.
Disclaimer: The Nurture Nook is an educational resource, not a medical practice. Nothing on this site constitutes medical advice, diagnosis, or treatment. All content is intended to support informed conversations with your healthcare provider - not to replace them.
